On 28 January 2023, what appears to have been a drone strike took place against a weapons factory in Isfahan, Iran. While there was relatively little international coverage of the attack, at least at first, speculation quickly grew that Israel had been behind the operation (although other immediate suspects included Ukraine, Azerbaijan and even Saudi Arabia). However, while Iran has now formally blamed Israel for what it has called a "cowardly attack", it has nevertheless played down the incident - arguing that it managed to shoot down two of the drones and that a third had merely done minor damage with no casualties. Meanwhile, Israel has yet to openly accept responsibility for the incident.
This raises the question as to why the response has been so low key? In truth, it plays out against a history of covert confrontation between the two countries - a confrontation that has often been called a cold war or "shadow war". While Israel and Iran enjoyed good relations for many decades, and even had some significant ties after the Iranian Revolution, since the mid-1980s the relationship has completely collapsed over a range of issues, including Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon. Developing nuclear weapons, Iran has vowed to destroy the Jewish state. Since then, Israel and Iran have engaged in a covert confrontation. This has involved proxies in Gaza and Lebanon (Hamas and Hezbollah), assassinations, bombings, cyber attacks and now, seemingly, drones. In this sense, the latest incident fits a wider pattern of a serious, but nevertheless clandestine, conflict that's been fought in the shadows and which neither side wants to escalate. But as Russia deepens its ties to Iran over Ukraine, could the latest incident indicate that the Iran-Israel conflict is now set to intensify?
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*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:38 Israel-Iran: A Covert Conflict
02:06 Israel-Iran Relations, 1948-1979
03:33 Israel-Iran Relations, 1979-Present
06:01 January 2023 Drone Attack on Iran
06:52 Did Israel Really Attack Iran?
09:26 Why Hasn’t Israel Claimed Responsibility?
11:11 Will Iran Retaliate?
*SOURCES AND FURTHER READING*
Foreign Ministry | Islamic Republic of Iran
https://en.mfa.ir
Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs
https://www.gov.il/en/departments/ministry_of_foreign_affairs/govil-landing-page
Israel Defense Forces
https://www.idf.il/en/
Iran Letter to the UN Blaming Israel
https://newyork.mfa.ir/files/Survey/2023020201075241286742513.pdf
Under Netanyahu, Israel’s Ukraine Policy Will Still Be ‘Made in Syria’
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/israeli-elections-netanyahu-russia-ukraine/
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